An Overview –
India and Russia is long term ally i.e. they are formally cooperating with each other for military or other purposes. 86% of Indian weapons is imported from Russia, on the other hand India’s relation with USA is quite strategic. India’s relation with USA has improved lately. Active strategies have been planned to counter the rise of China through QUAD. QUAD is an important group for India. As India has connection with the countries involved in the war, India has taken neutral stand, not only economically but also in other ways. As India has co-ordial relation with both the countries, in the world it appeals for peace and constant dialogue. Due to the co-ordial relation, India could execute operation “GANGA” where India could evacuate near about 22000 Indians, mainly the Indian students from the most dangerous zones like Kharkiv and Sumy in Ukraine. The ongoing war between the two countries has an adverse effect all around the globe.
Reasons for the War
Ukraine was a part of Russian history in eighteenth and nineteenth century. In nineteenth century, Russian Revolution introduced down the empire and area spiraled right into a civil warfare. Ukraine in short gained freedom from Russian rule but quietly taken over the newly created Soviet Union as one of the first independences. Over the following decade the Soviet Union brutally extended it’s managed. In 1949, those countries together with the United States and Canada fashioned NATO and promised to shield each other from invasions.
By late 1991, Republics like Ukraine started out putting forward independence from soviet dominance. The Soviet Union dissolved in 15 independent countries which include Russia and the Soviet sphere of affect disappears as many countries overthrew their communist authorities. Georgia and Ukraine each desired to join NATO for a long time and that made them a high target for Russia. Ukraine partnered with NATO in 1944 which brought them little closer to be their member. In 2013 they reached an affiliation agreement with ecu Union however when it became time to sign the deal Ukraine’s pro-Russian government refused it and rather, they select to strengthen ties with Russia, this led to a massive protest which demanded signing of the affiliation settlement. After months of protest Ukraine president killed 100’s of human beings after this fled from the country. This ended in loss of Putin’s political effect over Ukraine, so he determined to apply pressure as an alternative. First, he invaded Crimean Peninsula. Then Russia backed separatists and captured the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and declared them independent of Ukraine.
It is seen Russian army is getting settled at the border of Ukraine but Putin repeatedly kept denying any plans to invade. However, weeks later he presented his demand for the west. His major demand was NATO stop expanding and circulate its army borders returned to in which they have been in 1997 away from Russia. Leaders from West denied his needs and bolstered their army presence in jap Europe. Back at Ukraine border, Russian troops endured to accumulate.
On 21st February 2022, the chance of conflict became actual. Putin’s troops right away crossed the Ukrainian borders into Russian sponsored separatist areas. Underneath the pretense of peacekeeping, Ukraine imposes kingdom of emergency and president Zelensky made an instantaneous attraction to the Russian human beings that “no one can have security guarantees. Who will go through the maximum? The people”
On 24th February 2022 Putin launched a full-scale invasion in Ukraine. World leaders have spoken in opposition to Russian invasion. Anti-battle protest has started round the arena. NATO’s response force has been activated for the first time in history, and the US has provided extra troops to Eastern Europe. But in many approaches, the world is trading carefully. The world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons is controlled by Putin and has already threatened all who would possibly intervene. So, the countries round the world are imposing some of the hardest monetary sanctions to gradual Putin down and sending terms of navy aid to help Ukraine. Russian forces kept forcing deeper but Ukraine fought back.
Impact on the Asian stock market
On 24th march the stock market clashed as the Sensex clashed by 2700 points. As soon as the President of Russia announced military operation in Ukraine, market capital of BSE firm fell by Rs. 7.59 lakh cr. after investor wealth declined to Rs. 248.09 lakh cr. against 255.68 lakh cr. In the previous session. On a single day, Russian stock fell by 50% which impacted the whole Asian market.
Impact on the Export-Import
As Russia is the 3rd largest crude oil producer, 1/3rd oil that comes into Europe is from Russia. After the sanctions on Russia, the crude oil coming to Europe has reduced. As Russia invades Ukraine, crude oil hits 7 year high and shares sinks. Rising price of crude oil will directly impact our import bills which will result in inflation. India imports oils and minerals worth $2.05 Billion, $832 millions worth precious stones and metals, $609 million worth fertilizers from Russia. After the sanctions over Russia there is a high chance of halting trades and imports. This conflict also impact the edible oil prices as 70% of India’s sunflower oil comes from Ukraine and this will result to hike in prices of edible oil.
“I need ammunition, not a ride,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky tells the world when he was given a chance to flee from the country by the US. But he stayed back and fought for his country by himself.
The real war is won by perception.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine might not be World War 3, but could be Cold War 2. This world is marching towards the new world order. New allies are being formed.
D Prithvi Raaj,
I MBA, DSCE